TruStory = Augur for past (but uncertain) events?


#1

Isn’t TruStory ultimately doing the same as e.g. Augur or Numerai with the main difference being that whereas the latter are predicting the correct state of future events, TruStory is ‘predicting’ the correct state of present/past events?

In both cases there is an element of uncertainty at t0, which is then being voted on and the outcome determined at t1, which removes that uncertainty. In both cases tokens and reputation are staked to back one’s views.

If they are indeed so similar, what valuable lessons can be learned (and what functionality can be directly ported) from these, and other, projects?


#2

Yes. That’s an elegant analogy.

What Augur is doing towards future events, TruStory is doing for past events.
One nuance is that they’re a prediction market. We’re not. Predictions are never certain. Making claims about the past (technically, aren’t also certain because nothing is certain but that’s a philosophical debate for another time) are almost always certain.

This is a broader trend of information becoming a market. What Augur is doing for future events, Numerai is doing for hedge fund data, TruStory is doing for claims made online, plenty of others will do for other niche information types.

“What valuable lessons can be learned (and what functionality can be directly ported) from these, and other, projects?”
That is a phenomenal question I don’t have a good answer for right now. We’re definitely taking note because we see ourselves facing similar issues.


#3

You’re right with the Augur comparison. I’ve been closely monitoring Augur and so far I’m optimistic about how Augur markets are evolving and what it means for TruStory :blush:

For example, the need for an intrinsic token is becoming obvious in Augur, especially for markets which have a lot at stake.

We’ll continue to keep a close eye on it so we can learn as much as we can from them for TruStory.


#4

@priyatham I don’t believe you’ve described Augur very accurately.

Augur is at its core a decentralized oracle. The prediction markets are just one way that the oracle can be used. This is both true conceptually, and literally in the sense that the prediction market & oracle smart contracts are separate.

There’s nothing stopping anyone from writing another app (that is not a prediction market platform) using Augur’s oracle to choose other truths to be validated.

What this means for TruStory is unclear, if there was a public whitepaper or something it would be much easier to tell.