Claim : Every 24 days, the US national debt grows more than the entire market cap of bitcoin.
Category : Markets
Source : https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/1082763110069485569
My Stake : [Back claim] (20 Cred)
My Argument/Evidence :
At first glance, this appears to be a glib claim, thrown out to get a reaction. So I wanted to see how if there was any merit to this claim.
I consulted https://tradingeconomics.com/ for the following figures:
US GDP (2010, 2017)
US Debt-to-GDP % (2010, 2017) which could yield US Debt (2010, 2017).
Two figures to note from this graph:
US GDP (2010) = 14,964.37 Billion USD
US GDP (2017) = 19,390.60 Billion USD
Two additional figures to note from this graph:
US gross federal Debt-to-GDP % (2010) = 91.4%
US gross federal Debt-to-GDP % (2017) = 105.4%
Further, to get US gross federal Debt (2010), we take 91.4% of 14,964.37 Billion USD ~ 13,677 Billion USD.
To get US gross federal Debt (2017), we take 105.4% of 19,390.60 Billion USD ~ 20,437 Billion USD.
Therefore, US gross federal Debt grew between 2010 - 2017, from 13,677 to 20,437 Billion USD or by 6,760 Billion USD in 7 years. That comes out to approx. 49% growth in 7 years ((20,437 - 13,677) / 6,760) ~ 49.4%.
This somewhat linear growth (charts seems to suggest linear growth); indicates the US gross federal Debt grew by 965.71 Billion USD per year from 2010-2017 (6,760 / 7 = 965.71).
24 days out of 365 is 6.5% of the year.
If 6.5% of 965.71 Billion USD ~ 63 Billion US, as in the US gross federal Debt could be expected to grow by 63 Billion USD every 24 days. As of this writing (Jan-9, 2019) Bitcoin market cap is roughly 70 Billion USD. Therefore, the claim that every 24 days, the US national debt grows more than the entire market cap of bitcoin is close, but potentially off by 7 Billion.
However, an alternative calculation would take the growth rate from 2010 - 2017 (49%) and assume that means roughly 7% growth rate per year. That comes out to 7% of 20,437 Billion USD or 1,430.59 Billion USD growth in US gross federal Debt per year.
Taking 6.5% of 1,430.59 Billion ~ 93 Billion USD growth in US gross federal Debt every 24 days.
Conclusion: This imperfect calculation has US gross federal Debt growing between 63 Billion - 93 Billion per year. It is possible that the claim is accurate. Given this large range, I’d back claim with 20 Cred.