Best TruStories of the Week - #5


#21

Claim: Congressional Bill Asks U.S. Regulators to Study Global Regulations on Cryptocurrency to Promote Growth in the US

Category: Governance

Source: Coindesk

Evidence/Argument: A copy of the congressional bill can be found online thanks to the bill sponsor, Representative Darren Soto (Democrat - Florida) and states very clearly on the cover page that it is intended “To promote United States competitiveness in the evolving global virtual currency marketplace.” The bill is very easy to read and asks for research into global regulations in order to make the US more competitive in this space, and importantly for more clarity on which currencies are (or would be) commodities.

Status: Confirmed


#22

Claim : For Ethereum, because 48% of network activity remains since the peak, the “proxy value” for Ethereum is 0.48^2 or 0.23 – implying that it’s justifiable for Ethereum price to be down by 77% ( not 93% as currently down).

Category : Token Economics / Network Valuation

Source : https://medium.com/@cburniske/bitcoin-ethereum-prices-are-down-more-than-the-fundamentals-88fd18a86d14

Evidence/Argument : The following are 3 sub-claims that make up the larger claim.

Sub-claim #1 : Ethereum price is down 93% from peak on 1/13/18

Evidence : peak price at $1385.02, on January 13th, 2018. Current prices, as of this writing, is $89.93. This is down 93.5%

Source: https://etherscan.io/chart/etherprice

Status : Supported.

Sub-claim #2: Within the article, the starting point of Burniske’s analysis is that Ethereum is currently processing ~500,000 transactions per day

Evidence: https://etherscan.io/chart/tx

Status: Supported. Burniske offers an approximate round number that is close enough to current levels.

Sub-claim #3 : From peak (1/13/18) Ethereum price is down 93% (while daily transactions are down only down 52%); implying that the remaining network activity is at 48%

Argument :

Burniske uses the peak in Ethereum daily transaction at (1/13/18), because that’s when the price peaked (note: contrary to my previous understanding and analysis with Bitcoin).

The charts below indicate that on (1/13/18), there were 1,179,321 transactions. If we take Ethereum Daily Transaction on 1/13/18 subtract the latest (12/10/18) transactions per day; 1,179,321 vs. 555,379; current est transactions/per day is 47% of the peak or down 53%, this implies that remaining network activity is 47%. According to Burniske’s analysis, 0.47^2 = 22% (implying it’s justifiable that Ethereum’s price is down 78% (Burniske’s figure is 77%), which is quite a ways off from the 93% current downturn).

Source: Raw CSV file from https://etherscan.io/chart/tx
raw_data_eth_daily_tx

Status : Confirmed.

Ethereum prices are down lower than fundamentals. Fundamentals are down 78%, prices are down 93.5%.


Best TruStories of the Week - #6
#23

Claim: Stablecoins are gaining popularity in a general crypto bear market

Category: Stablecoins

Source:

Evidence:
If you look at the Network value or Market cap for stablecoins like GUSD, PAX, USDC you can see they have increased in the past few months compared to the downtrend of Bitcoin & Ethereum.
The statistics validate the claim but can be challenged this as not a general trend on any crypto bear market with more data.

Status: Unconfirmed


#24

would be great to see specific growth % for DAI, GUSD, PAX, USDC (in comparison to Bitcoin and Ethereum) @sijo0703


#25

Yes true! I am looking for more conclusive data. I will keep the status unconfirmed for timebeing


#26

Claim: Brave will be the default browser on HTC’s new smartphone.

Category: Projects

Sources:

Notes: The CNET article on this topic reads “default browser on obscure HTC crypto-phone.” Calling it “obscure” may add a negative slant on the new phone and obscurity is relative and not easily invalidatable. I removed the word from the claim.

Status: Confirmed


#27

@jtierney
More Evidences: Brenden Eich had tweeted based on this tweet from BitsBeTrippin YouTube channel

Here is there YouTube review where you can see the brave browser- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PR5PkTa1ags


#28

Claim: Coinbase planning on listing new crypto assets in response to client demands
Category: Projects
Source: http://unchainedpodcast.co/coinbases-listing-process-why-its-adding-many-more-coins-and-how-it-decides-ep96

Subclaim 1: Coinbase is planning on listing new crypto assets

Evidence: Coinbase has publicly declared through medum blog posts that it was actively considering listing a number of crypto assets including Cardano, Basica Attention Token, Stellar Lumens, Zcash and 0x. They had also revised their asset listing process in September 2018 to make the listing submission process easier:

Status: Confirmed

Subclaim 2: Coinbase is listing new assets in response to client demands

Evidence: Dan Romero, VP of Coinbase has mentioned in an interview with Laura Shin (12:00-12:30) that they had revised their listing process, and wider expansion strategy in response to customer demands. This still needs to be confirmed by a third party source. The crypto market has been very volatile, Coinbase’s aggression could be driven by speculaion, as opposed to genuine customer demand

Status: Unconfirmed


#29

Interesting. Seems that China emphasize blockchain a lot as state policy. Just curious, why are these enterprises so active applying for patents (for consortium blockchain network?) Would these patents by any chance inhibit/help development in the public blockchain use cases?


#30

Claim: Uncle blocks, which are used to reward miners when duplicate block solutions are found, contribute to the security of the main chain.

Source: https://ethereum.stackexchange.com/questions/34/what-is-an-uncle-ommer-block

Category: Ethereum

Argument/Evidence: It is true that uncle blocks are rewarded. However, contrary to popular belief, Ethereum does not apply GHOST’s principle to include the contributions of “uncles” in the main chain. As noted in this paper from 2016:

although uncle blocks that are included in a block receive a reward, they do not count towards the total difficulty of a chain, i.e., Ethereum uses a longest chain rule with added rewards for uncle blocks. This clearly contradicts Ethereum’s claim of using a blockchain protocol adapting GHOST

Also, Nick Johnson, a core Ethereum developer, confirms this point here:

Ethereum determines the longest chain based on the total difficulty, which is embedded in the block header. Ties are broken randomly.

Total difficulty is the simple sum of block difficulty values without explicitly counting uncles. Difficulty is computed based on parent difficulty and timestamp, block timestamp, and block number, again without reference to uncles.

Code to prove this can be found here in Ethereum’s codebase: Ethereum block difficulty calculation

Status: Rejected


#31

Claim: Chinese Crypto Miners Sell off Mining Devices Amidst Market Decline

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/china-crypto-miners-sell-off-mining-devices-by-kilo-amidst-market-decline

Category: Mining

Evidence:

1. Video of Chinese Mining Site https://twitter.com/doveywan/status/1064878600594305025?s=21

Video footage from Chinese source, with many idle machines. Tweeted by Dovey Wan (a popular crypto investor). Seems credible.

2. F2pool (top 5 mining pool) published info on Mining Machine Breakeven Price https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DtPm79SU4AAAlJF.jpg:large

*Calculation based on assuming electricity cost $0.06/kwH, mining difficulty & BTC price as of 11/30.

4 types of BTC mining machines already reached “shutdown” price. More machines will follow after if BTC continues to drop. It makes sense for small miners to shut down & sell machines when they are generating negative cash flow, even if they can’t recover capex.

3. Large amount of second-hand btc mining machine sale, from China via Alibaba.com

https://www.alibaba.com/products/F0/second_hand_bitcoin_miner/--CN--------------------------G.html?spm=a2700.7724857.galleryFilter.13.7c937ec6OLggVD

Status: Confirmed


#32

Claim: @USTreasury has added two Bitcoin addresses to its list of sanctioned parties. This list has been typically reserved for enemies of state such as Osama Bin Laden.

Source: https://twitter.com/msantoriESQ/status/1067843160041082880

Category: Regulation

Evidence/Analysis:

Two Iran-based individuals, Ali Khorashadizadeh and Mohammad Ghorbaniyan, who helped convert bitcoin ransom payments into Iranian rial on behalf of Iranian malicious cyber actors, for over 200 known victims’ data hostage.

Over 7,000 transactions in bitcoin, worth millions of U.S. dollars, have processed through these two addresses that converted btc into Iranian rial:

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/149w62rY42aZBox8fGcmqNsXUzSStKeq8C

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1AjZPMsnmpdK2Rv9KQNfMurTXinscVro9V

According to Press Release, this is the first time OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) is publicly attributing digital currency addresses to designated individuals.

Status: Confirmed


#33

hi @eddyso this is a duplicate of this claim by @Astra-Rai from last week: Best TruStories of the Week - #4

when posting a claim, please check to make sure the claim you’re about to post doesn’t already exist in past threads. You can use the search functionality in Discourse (top right) and do a keyword search. Even if the claim already exists, you can still do analysis on it! In the real TruStory app, multiple people can analyze a single claim with arguments and evidence (in fact, this is encouraged and important). We should do the same on Discourse: Reply to an existing claim with your own evidence and arguments. :slight_smile:


#34

Claim: Apple has taken an explicit stance against the Australian government claiming they will not introduce backdoors and decrypt data on seized devices

Category: Regulation

Evidence/Argument:

Source: Apple AU site: https://www.apple.com/au/privacy/approach-to-privacy/

Status: Confirmed


#35

this is so awesome to see. I love that Apple is doing the right thing.

thanks for sharing.


#36

Claim : Kraken is seeking fundraising to support a $4B valuation

Category : Crypto Funds & Fundraises

Source : https://www.theblockcrypto.com/tiny/kraken-appeals-to-customers-in-novel-strategy-to-raise-at-a-4-billion-valuation/

Evidence/Argument : https://twitter.com/MannerCookie/status/1072555878337921024 Twitter user shares the email he received from Kraken for investment opportunities

https://www.coindesk.com/kraken-is-seeking-war-chest-investment-at-a-4-billion-valuation CEO Jesse Powell confirms this while speaking with Coindesk

Status : Confirmed

I wonder how this plays out from last weeks TruStory thread that Kraken confirmed layoffs


#37

@HelloRena I would categorize this under “Crypto Funds”

Perhaps we should change the category name to “Crypto Funds & Fundraises”


#38

Thanks! Updating from “scaling” to " Crypto Funds & Fundraises" right now


#39

Sorry my bad, will check next time!


#40

Claim: South Korean Crypto-Exchange Coinone Launches Cross-Border Payments App With Ripple Tech

Category: Projects (Ripple)

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/coinone-exchange-launches-cross-border-payments-app-with-ripple-tech

Evidence:
The only valid evidence I could find is the post on Ripple site on this

This would be more than enough to prove this claim but unfortunately, I could not find a reference to Ripple tech in the Coinone Transfer Inc. remittance app named cross. The app was updated on Dec 10, 2018, with a new remittance service to Thailand

Also on the Thailand Bank website which uses promptpay service which is mentioned to use Ripple tech there is no reference about that

It is possible that the Ripple tech is used as the underlying technology for remittance and not made transparent to end users!

Status: Unconfirmed