Best TruStories of the Week - #12


#21

Bitcoin has already changed its narrative once, from peer-to-peer electronic cash to a digital store of value. I wouldn’t rule out another significant narrative change in the future.

But let’s say that the store of value use case ends up being the primary use case for Bitcoin. There is such a small amount of Bitcoin adoption currently world wide. If bitcoin actually becomes the preeminent store of value, far more people will own Bitcoin in the future than they do today, which means the amount of potential transactions in the future will be dramatically higher than the amount of transactions that take place today. Even stores of value are transacted. The notional value of gold traded daily for example is $125.3 billion as of October 23, 2015. That means $125.3 billion worth of gold is changing ownership. Only around $11 billion worth of BTC is traded on exchanges today, and that number is probably far smaller in reality because of fake trading volume. Only 363,442 transactions occurred on the Bitcoin blockchain in the past 24 hours, and only 1,306,806 BTC at a value of approximately $5.3 billion was sent across the Bitcoin network in the past 24 hours. Therefore, if Bitcoin replaces gold as the preeminent store of value, the amount of transactions should dramatically increase in order to more closely match the transactions of gold. A rising tide lifts all boats.

I also took an incredibly conservative approach in my analysis, assuming that in 2140 Bitcoin will have the same amount of transactions as it does today. Even if Bitcoin is primarily viewed as a store of value, the increase in demand for Bitcoin should lead to far more transactions being executed than today. The amount of BTC trading should at least converge on the notional amount of gold trading per day.


#22

For purely a “Store of value” use case, I’m still not convinced of this. Because people will want to hoard it and not transact with it if they know it’ll increase in value.

But I don’t believe Bitcoin will be a good store of value UNLESS it’s more than a store of value. I wrote about that here. Whether we agree or disagree on that point, I think we agree that IF Bitcoin is still the dominant cryptocurrency in 2140, it’ll likely have far more transactions being executed than today. So yeah, I see your point. Thanks for convincing me :blush: